Can Dion pull it off?

Opposition leaders don’t get the chance to show what they are capable of as easily as the PM. They do not have the stage, do not run the PMO or the government. In the House, they can show us who they are, but for Dion, that’s been difficult because Steve has shut down Parliament more than usual. Even when the House sits, few Canadians read or watch debates, so they rely on the media to tell them what Dion is doing. Can we trust what the media says? Here is what journalist John Moor tells us:

The media love to imagine that politics is a soap opera. In order to make the narrative of the day work, they often have to tweak the characters, nudging them toward more clear-cut dramatic roles. The latest victim is Liberal leader Stephane Dion who, owing to the fact that he is largely colourless and odourless, provides the media a perfect blank canvas.

Stephen Harper has ingeniously concocted a scenario whereby he and Stephane Dion are sitting on top of the same bundle of dynamite and Dion is to be mocked for not pressing the detonator. And the media can't get enough of it. If the bomb were to go off, it seems entirely likely that Canadians would send Harper back with another minority. Then who would the media cast as the sad clown?

Add to those problems that Dion only recently realized he needs to take active measures to let us know who he is.

So we are left to study what we do know, examine the environment, and try to see through the media’s “soap opera” and the political games.

Dion was not expected to win the leadership, but he did. That was not a fluke, but due in large to his ability to connect people, to compromise in order to find the best solution for the majority. That’s good politics, good democratic politics, but slow-going compared to Ignatieff’s more energetic, charismatic style. Dion also has a good history of solid, responsible, well thought out political experience. He is capable of learning, can accept if he was wrong, and set his ego aside to admit it and change. Dion’s strengths are harder to see than immediate charisma and superior public speaking skills, but when it comes to running a country, charisma and speaking skills will only make you a front man if the rest isn’t there.

Dion faced a big test with the Throne Speech. If he folded, he’d be accused of being weak. If he voted it down, he’d be accused of being irresponsible and obstructionist, would have tossed his party into an election most agree they weren’t ready for and that few Canadians want. I thought he should have forced an election, but he did what a good opposition leader should - tried to work with the government to make it work - with amendments and opposition as needed to represent Canadians who do not want to go along with everything the minority government wishes. It was the right thing to do, but will it make him or break him?

As I mentioned, what the media says will heavily influence what most Canadians think. Up until yesterday, Dion was not presented favourably in the press, then it happened - a few positive articles. What was notable about them was the suddenness and the fresh perspective. It was as though some journalist were seeing him for the first time, or at least seeing something they hadn’t seen before, something worth reporting. That continued today as well. There were still negative write-ups, but mostly from the West where Jesus himself would have trouble getting good press if he wore the Liberal colours.

Other good news for Dion was the widely reported story of Garneau not only re-joining the fold, but giving Dion complete credit for having turned him around. Whether or not Garneau is a good politician is irrelevant in this instance. Yes, it matters in another field, but here, it was a good move because it restored some confidence in the party and for the party, and displayed Dion’s skill at winning people over with his personal approach and diplomacy.

Also within the past few days, there have been changes in the CPC front. The crime bill will most likely go through, but with mst of the amendments the opposition demanded. That’s a step back from Steve’s threat just days ago that “not a comma will be changed.” Yesterday, Baird said they will not pull out of Kyoto. Empty words, yes, when they show no signs of trying to meet the accord’s goals, but still a step back from the old, tough stance, and the press was not kind to Baird on this obvious hypocrisy. And another softening of words - Stevie referring to the extension in Afghanistan to 2011 as a development mission, not a military one. More lies, likely, but ones that make that tough posturing look a little less convincing.

If his party forms a strong, united front, keeps up the pressure they’ve been applying in the House the past three days, if Dion speaks more often, and in more spontaneous situations where he’s at his best, yes, he could pull it off and become PM. I believe he’d be a very good one.

Here are a few of those positive press clips I mentioned: (some of them are worth the entire read)

the fact is it was the smart, responsible thing to do; the former cabinet minister under both Martin and Chretien is no pushover; One thing is for certain. He's a tough nut to crack; The reality is, Dion not only failed to hand the Tories an assumed campaign gift, but also smoked out the Bloc Quebecois and New Democrats, which must both now vote against the Liberals -- and with the Tory government -- to themselves avoid causing an election on an amendment to the Speech.

Stéphane Dion seems smart, honest, intellectually supple and attractively optimistic by nature -- and, arguably, more in tune with majority Canadian values than is his chief rival. If Harper is showing surprising flexibility behind the scenes, Dion, too, may have adroitly manoeuvred his party out of a dangerous cul-de-sac -- even with some elan.

To his credit, Liberal Leader St phane Dion may have found a way to express opposition to elements of the speech, including the abandonment of the Kyoto Protocol, without bringing down the minority government.
Lethbridge Herald, Oct. 19

Invited by Prime Minister Stephen Harper to step right over the edge of the election precipice, Dion decided instead to stay where he is. It was the right decision.
Montreal Gazette, Oct 19

Stéphane Dion ne devait pas survivre au départ de Jean Chrétien, mais il s'est accroché et a réussi à redevenir ministre dans le gouvernement Martin. Mieux encore, il a été un brillant ministre de l'Environnement, alors que tout le monde doutait de sa capacité de faire autre chose que de la Constitution. (La Presse, Oct. 20)

But he demurred from walking the gangplank. It was a wise move. Because the throne speech reflected 16 pages of moderation and uplifting prose designed to leave Canadians feeling good about themselves and their country. It read like a Conservative election campaign pamphlet.

It was expected that Mr. Harper would take advantage of the Conservatives' lead in the polls to trigger an election by loading the Speech with a poison pill that Liberal Leader, Stéphane Dion could not swallow. Dion fooled him. He delivered a scathing rebuttal that offered a series of amendments to the speech that would be acceptable to Canadians.
Times & Transcipt, Oct 20